This analysis primarily focuses on data from Service Manager Annual Information Returns (SMAIR), obtained through Freedom of Information Requests. We were provided with data for years 2020-2023.

For this analysis I am focused on housing stock. This data suggests certain categories of units have undergone significant loss. The next step of this work should be to contextualize what is happening and engage relevant service managers. Points of opportunity are laid out through the analysis.

1 Community Housing Stock Breakdown

There are 222,311 total units reported by Service Managers in 2023 annual report. This is a large portion of the total community housing stock estimated by CMHC in their 2023 Social and Affordable Housing Survey.
CMHC estimated that there are 65,000 units in Ontario that receive funding only from the Federal government, and 44,000 units that have no funding agreement.
NOTE: based on conversations I’ve had with CMHC to better understand their methodology, I suspect the overall count is an overestimation. They stated they are improving their methodology for Ontario, including working closely with MMAH, and the soon to be released updated survey data should have big improvements.

1.1 Service Manager Unit Breakdown

These figures display the total amount of units that Service Managers reported to MMAH in the SMAIR.
The increased unit count in 2023 is not due to new activity, but rather expansion on reporting. The Ministry of Health (MOH) and Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services (MCS) appears for the first time in SMAIR 2023. As these ministries’ funding and units were not tracked in prior years of SMAIR, they will be excluded from following change-over-time analyses to ensure consistency.
In 2023 new regions or agencies were included in the dataset. This includes MOH (presumably Ministry of Health), MCS (presumably Ministry of Community Services), and DEB (not certain on this). So growth in 2023 likely is not growth in new units, but just what is tracked under this dataset. Hamilton did not report for 2023, so I used their 2022 numbers for 2023.
New builds funded under programs like COCHI and OPHI would be included in these counts, but I cannot confirm which program they would fall under. MMAH did not provide any insight upon reaching out.
I explored “service agreement” data, but I suspect this data was reported incorrectly or inconsistently, and appeared too unreliable to base any analysis off.

Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

1.2 How much is Service Manager stock changing?

1.2.1 Total units by unit type and program

These figures remove regions and agencies that are not consistently reporting, to better reflect changes occurring in this stock.
The following figures will display changes better, but overall we see a very small loss of units under Ontario’s community housing system.

Here is a better look at change in unit types since 2020.

1.2.2 Unit count change since 2020

Most programs are seeing decreases in unit count, with the exception of Rent Supplement, Service Agreements and Public Housing.
Rent supplements are growing rapidly, but growth stems almost entirely from Toronto. There is an actual decline in Rent Supplements across Ontario when removing Toronto, as shown in the following figure.

Factors behind these changes:

OPHI and COCHI are used to fund construction of new social housing and rent supplements OPHI and COCHI Guidelines.
Some of the losses in certain programs would also relate to transfers to local housing corporations, which would just shift those units into the Public Housing count.
Some providers not obtaining new agreements, or agreements expiring.

Questions:

What is the proportion of rent supplements going to private non-profits versus for-profits?
How much of the change is attributed to units leaving the system at end-of-agreement, and what happens to most of these units (e.g., do they go to market rates? Get sold? Loss to disrepair?)

1.3 Unit change by program and unit type

The following figures show the total unit count change and percent change since 2020, the first year of available data.

The Majority of new units are occurring in rent supplements. Rent supplements have seen an increase in low-end of market/RGI units with above household income limit households.
RGI units are being lost in public housing, Section 95 and Provincially Reformed housing projects.

1.4 Total Unit Change by SM Area

Hover over or zoom in to see unit count for each service manager.
Many regions had very little change at all, and a very select regions had large changes (more on these in the next figure).

1.4.1 Units Change by Program and Service Manager

This figure order SM regions from total growth in units, to total loss of units.
Toronto rent supplement accounts for a massive proportion of all new growth in units.

Question:

How much does COHB contribute to Toronto’s rent supplement growth?
Where does Toronto’s rent supplements go? Primarily for-profit landlords? Are any of these supplements tied to new construction?
Look into Toronto’s housing plan and TCHC annual report to see if they list recipients of rent supplements.

SMAIR analyses

2024-11-25